Posted by
drpete on Thursday, June 11, 2009 2:44:12 PM
Over the incredible ride of the last 70 years,
Republicans have outnumbered Democrats only once, and it was short-lived, 1995
during the Clinton administration. The GOP got close –
about 3 points down – during FDR’s final year of life, then again in the last
two years of Reagan. The two parties were tied briefly during Bush 41 until he
flipped on his “Read my lips” pledge. For most of the 70 years Democrats have
had a clear edge. Independents, however, have climbed from less than 20% to
leading both parties for the first time just in the past couple of
months.
The GOP in 2009 is 88% Caucasian, 2% black, 6% Hispanic,
and 4% other. Men are 51% and women 49% of the party. Evangelical Protestants
comprise 35%, other Protestants another 23%, and Catholics 18%. The party is
increasingly from the South, and decreasingly from the Northeast and the West.
The party is more conservative than a decade ago or even five years ago, less
moderate and less liberal. During the first decade of the new millennium the
GOP’s average age has risen by three years.
The percentages identifying themselves as Republicans
over the last six years have been
30 in
2004, 29 in 2005, 28 in 2006, 25 in 2007, 25 in 2008, and 23 in
2009.
The percentages identifying themselves as
Democrats
33 in
’04, 33 in ’05, 33 again in ’06, 34 in ’07, 36 in ’08, 35 in ’09.
The percentages identifying themselves as Independents
over the last six years have been
30 in 2004, 30 in 2005, 30 again in 2006,
33 in 2007, 32 in 2008, and 36 in 2009.
As the Democrat Party has grown by almost 10% during
this period, gaining either from the Independents or from ACORN creations, the
20% growth in self-proclaimed Independents has come mostly from the ranks of
Republicans. The effect on the Independent cadre has been that they have become
more fiscally-conservative, but no more
socially-conservative.
Since the beginning of the second Bush 43 term, the
Republican Party has shrunk by about 23-24%, that while keeping its
social-conservative, religious fundamentalists, but jettisoning many
limited-government Constitutionalists and Libertarians. The young – including
new 2008 voters – are mostly Independents. They are more fiscally-conservative
than Democrats, but much more closely aligned with them in social values and
religiosity.
The two positive periods during the seven decades for
Republicans were the Reagan years and the Clinton
years, periods led by a true-conservative President, then a true-conservative
congress and its Contract with America. There are lessons to be
learned from history.
Depending on the issue, at least a third of today’s
Republicans look first to the government to solve problems, irrespective to
whether there exists Constitutional-enumerated authority. Among Independents
some two-thirds look first to government, and among Democrats it’s near 100%.
My conclusion, then, is that, whether in our courts or our court of public
opinion, the rule of law and U.S. Constitution have been rendered
irrelevant.
(Statistics herein, compliments of Pew Research and Gallup Organization.)
The GOP has become aging Bubbas with brains, and that’s
a dying breed. It’s not attracting anyone new. The ubiquitous government
schools and their teachers’ unions serve to guarantee the GOP’s demise. When a
rational thinker slips through, the hippie-liberal-fascist college faculty,
along with the leftist “news” media are there waiting to pound that outlier into
submission.
When the last Republican lies on his death bed, in a
whisper I expect he’ll proclaim that we need a federal law banning gay marriage,
notwithstanding that it’d be unconstitutional. After receiving last rites, a
member of ACORN will sign him up as a Democrat and register him to vote. As
background, Madonna will sing “Don’t cry for me, Argentina . .
.”